Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

AT

Aprea Therapeutics, Inc. (APRE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered continued clinical progress: ATRN-119 showed early single-agent anti-tumor activity with tumor shrinkage of 7%, 14%, and 21% in the 550 mg BID cohort, while APR-1051 advanced dose escalation to 100 mg QD with preliminary efficacy data expected in H2 2025 .
  • Financially, grant revenue was $0.162M and net loss was $3.93M ($0.66 EPS); opex increased YoY on trial activity (R&D $2.48M vs $1.60M YoY), while G&A declined slightly YoY to $1.76M .
  • Liquidity improved relative to prior guidance: cash and equivalents were $19.3M at March 31, 2025, with runway into early Q2 2026 (vs prior guidance of runway into Q1 2026 as of Q4 2024) — a guidance raise on runway duration .
  • Estimates context: Street revenue consensus for Q1 was $0.0*, making the reported $0.162M a trivial beat; EPS consensus was unavailable*, and 2 analysts had an average target price of $10.5* [GetEstimates]*.
  • Near-term catalysts that can move the stock: open-label safety/efficacy readouts in H2 2025 for APR-1051 and ATRN-119, and RP2D selection expected in H1 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “2025 is off to a strong start with significant clinical progress across both of our lead therapeutic candidates,” CEO Oren Gilad said, citing early evidence of single-agent activity for ATRN-119 and ongoing enrollment in APR-1051 .
  • ATRN-119 demonstrated measurable tumor reductions at a dose below the anticipated RP2D (21% leiomyosarcoma with RB1/ATM, 14% acinar cell pancreatic with ATM, 7% ovarian with BRIP1) — positive signal early in dose escalation .
  • Liquidity runway extended: $19.3M cash and equivalents at quarter-end, supporting operations into early Q2 2026 — longer than prior guidance (Q1 2026) .

What Went Wrong

  • Losses widened YoY: operating loss rose to $4.09M (vs $3.15M YoY), net loss to $3.93M (vs $2.81M YoY), driven by higher R&D tied to two active clinical programs .
  • Grant revenue contracted YoY ($0.162M vs $0.381M YoY), offering limited offset to increased opex .
  • Weighted-average share count rose to ~5.99M from ~4.20M YoY, diluting per-share metrics despite similar EPS YoY ($0.66 vs $0.67) .

Financial Results

P&L and EPS trend vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Grant Revenue ($USD)$380,569 $354,621 $205,817 $162,463
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$3,530,239 $4,451,637 $3,431,862 $4,248,045
Operating Loss ($USD)$(3,149,670) $(4,097,016) $(3,226,045) $(4,085,582)
Net Loss ($USD)$(2,810,091) $(3,783,769) $(2,894,799) $(3,932,659)
Net Loss per Share (EPS) ($)$(0.67) $(0.64) $(0.49) $(0.66)
Weighted Avg Shares4,198,326 5,939,755 5,954,700 5,993,866

Notes: Gross margin and EBITDA margins are not applicable given minimal grant revenue and clinical-stage model (no product sales).

Liquidity and balance sheet KPIs

KPIQ4 2024 (Dec 31)Q1 2025 (Mar 31)
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD)$22,849,885 $19,275,721
Total Current Assets ($USD)$23,576,139 $19,834,410
Total Current Liabilities ($USD)$3,360,975 $3,361,098
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD)$19,307,455 $15,549,922

Estimates vs actuals (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$0*$162,463
EPS ($)N/A*$(0.66)
Revenue – # of Estimates2*—
EPS – # of EstimatesN/A*—
Target Price (Mean)$10.50*$10.50*

Estimates disclaimer: Values retrieved from S&P Global*. EPS coverage was unavailable*.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Liquidity runwayThrough“Into Q1 2026” (as of Q4 2024 results) “Into early Q2 2026” (as of Q1 2025) Raised (extended)
ATRN-119 Phase 1 readoutH2 2025H2 2025 (maintained) H2 2025 (maintained) Maintained
ATRN-119 RP2D selectionH1 2026Not explicitly stated previouslyH1 2026 New specific timing
APR-1051 preliminary safety/efficacyH2 2025H2 2025 (maintained) H2 2025 (maintained) Maintained
ABOYA-119 dosing strategy2024–2025Add BID (Dec 2024) BID cohort ongoing incl. 550 mg BID; activity observed Implemented (optimization)
APR-1051 dose escalation2025Cohort 5 (70 mg) Mar 2025 Enrolling 100 mg QD; next cohort planned 150 mg Accelerating (revised upward)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was found; themes compiled from Q3/Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 earnings materials and press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
R&D execution (dosing progress)APR-1051 accelerated titration cleared Cohort 3; ATRN-119 once-daily to dose level 6 APR-1051 Cohort 5 enrolling; ATRN-119 once-daily up to 1100 mg and BID added APR-1051 enrolling 100 mg with plan for 150 mg; ATRN-119 BID cohort shows tumor shrinkage Improving (faster escalation; signals emerging)
Dosing regimen optimizationProposal to add BID in ATRN-119 BID formally added (Dec 2024) BID cohort results (7–21% shrinkage) Positive validation of strategy
Partnerships/academic ties—Philippe Pultar joined as advisor MD Anderson MTA (preclinical HNSCC) Strengthening ecosystem
IP/regulatory positioning—IP and portfolio overview in corporate deck Patent portfolio update (expiry horizons, breadth) Reinforced IP moat
Safety/tolerabilityATRN-119: no DLTs or hematologic toxicity to date APR-1051: no hematologic toxicity to date APR-1051 and ATRN-119 tolerability enabling escalation Consistently favorable

Management Commentary

  • “In our ongoing ATRN-119 clinical program, three patients in the latest twice daily cohort demonstrated stable disease, with tumor shrinkage of 7%, 14% and 21%, marking early evidence of single agent, anti-tumor activity.” — Oren Gilad, Ph.D., President and CEO .
  • “Given the encouraging tolerability profile to date, we are in a position to accelerate dose escalation and explore higher doses, potentially improving APR-1051 therapeutic impact.” .
  • “Enrollment of the first patient with HPV+ head and neck cancer in the Phase 1 ACESOT-1051 trial is an important step… We continue to believe that APR-1051 has best in class potential.” — Philippe Pultar, MD .
  • “The addition of twice daily dosing represents a proactive step to de-risk the trial, potentially increasing the probability of success.” — Oren Gilad, Ph.D. (Dec 2024) .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, no Q&A themes could be extracted. Commentary herein is based on earnings releases and corporate materials .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue vs consensus: Reported $0.162M vs $0.0* consensus — a nominal beat given biotech grant revenue scale [GetEstimates]*.
  • EPS: No Q1 2025 EPS consensus was available*; reported EPS was $(0.66) .
  • Coverage/targets: Two analysts with an average target price of $10.5* [GetEstimates]*.
  • Implication: With minimal top-line and absent EPS consensus, investors will anchor on clinical readouts and cash runway; estimate revisions likely focus on R&D timing rather than P&L magnitude .

Estimates disclaimer: Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clinical signals are emerging for ATRN-119 (7–21% tumor shrinkage at sub-RP2D) — watch H2 2025 open-label safety/efficacy readout for validation and potential narrative inflection .
  • APR-1051 dosing is accelerating (100 mg QD with plan for 150 mg), supported by tolerability, with preliminary efficacy data targeted for H2 2025 — potential best-in-class WEE1 profile would be a valuation driver .
  • Liquidity runway was extended to early Q2 2026, reducing near-term financing risk and supporting execution to RP2D milestones in H1 2026 .
  • P&L pressure persists as trials ramp (R&D up YoY), with limited grant revenue — expect opex-led losses until clinical catalysts translate into partnership or funding events .
  • Academic collaboration (MD Anderson) and expanding IP underpin optionality in HNSCC and broader DDR targets; combination strategies (e.g., with ICIs) may broaden the path forward .
  • Trading lens: H2 2025 data readouts are key catalysts; interim updates on dosing cohorts (especially BID ATRN-119) can drive sentiment and estimate recalibration .
  • Risk monitoring: dose-limiting toxicities, tolerability at higher doses, and enrollment pace — management indicates favorable profiles to date, but continued vigilance is warranted .